Long Term Financial Plan Overview and Executive Summary


The National Advisory Council on State and Local Budgeting (NACSLB) and the Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) both recommend that governments establish a financial planning process that assesses the long-term financial implications of current and proposed policies, programs, and assumptions, and develops appropriate strategies to achieve its goals.


The Long Term Financial Plan (LTFP) is intended to serve as a tool, providing the Mayor, Town Council and staff with the insight required to address issues impacting the Town’s financial condition. This plan consists of the following sections:



More detail regarding revenue and expenditure trends can be found in the section titled General Fund Trends


General Fund Forecast

The forecast summary can be found on page 6. The General Fund forecast assumptions can be found under the section titled Forecast. On the expenditure side the proposed FY22 budget has been used as the baseline for the forecast. Because the proposed operating budget is 3.62% higher than the FY21 budget, the new forecasted expenditures have increased. We increased funding for the Capital Improvement Program to $8,428,200 in the proposed FY22. A total of $5,500,000 is included for the reconstruction of the North Fire-Rescue Station. Of this amount, $4 million is from General Fund Reserves or future bank financing. The forecast in FY23 includes the additional $1.5 million from taxes that was allocated for the North Fire-Rescue station, which may remain in the fund for future capital projects. Overall, the General Fund expenditure forecast includes annual increases that range from a decrease of 1.53% in FY23 to a top increase of 3.83% in FY25. The average increase through the forecast period is 2.33%.



FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27

FY28

FY29

FY30

Revenues

89,140,573

87,789,044

90,900,974

94,384,191

97,604,552

100,245,540

101,954,195

104,477,851

107,103,702

Expenditures

89,140,573

87,789,043

90,900,974

94,384,191

97,604,552

100,245,539

101,954,195

104,477,851

107,103,702

Surplus/(Deficit)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Property Tax Revenue % Increase

4.43%

3.46%

3.75%

4.23%

3.66%

2.59%

1.36%

2.43%

2.61%


Most revenue increases were based on historical trends. We prepared the forecast using property tax revenue to balance each year of the forecast. The FY23 forecast contains a property tax revenue increase of 3.46%. A taxable value increase of 6.7% in FY23, which would include a “save our Homes” increase of 3%, and a decrease of 3.04% in the millage rate and would result in a $0 increase per million of taxable value. It is far too early in the process to predict what the property tax increase will be for FY22. No additional funding from the Marina or the potential land lease revenue has been included in this forecast. These funding sources have the potential to lower property taxes or fund one-time expenditures in the future.


Enterprise Funds

The Town Marina is expected to open November 1, 2021. Staff has updated the forecast with the FY22 proposed budget and extended the forecast through 2030.


The revenue forecast was based on dockage rate surveys were conducted and assessed by W. F. Baird, USMG and Town Staff ultimately resulting in the annual and seasonal rate schedule. The rates are 10

Revenue Forecast FY22 - FY30


Analysis of Revenues by Category

Revenue Sources

2022

Estimated

2023

Estimated

2024

Estimated

2025

Estimated

2026

Estimated

2027

Estimated

2028

Estimated

2029

Estimated

2030

Estimated


Ad Valorem Revenues


59,663,700


61,725,146


64,040,837


66,751,254


69,193,913


70,988,468


71,952,346


73,700,517


75,622,057

% Increase

4.43%

3.46%

3.75%

4.23%

3.66%

2.59%

1.36%

2.43%

2.61%

$ Increase

2,529,700

2,061,446

2,315,691

2,710,417

2,442,659

1,794,555

963,878

1,748,171

1,921,540

Non Ad Valorem Taxes

9,021,233

9,285,120

9,556,789

9,836,470

10,124,400

10,420,826

10,725,998

11,040,177

11,363,628

% Increase

4.89%

2.93%

2.93%

2.93%

2.93%

2.93%

2.93%

2.93%

2.93%


420,233

263,887

271,669

279,681

287,931

296,426

305,172

314,178

323,452

Licenses and Permits

2,108,500

2,161,500

2,250,390

2,302,561

2,397,752

2,454,476

2,556,463

2,618,159

2,682,510

% Increase

5.68%

2.51%

4.11%

2.32%

4.13%

2.37%

4.16%

2.41%

2.46%

$ Increase

113,400

53,000

88,890

52,171

95,190

56,724

101,988

61,696

64,351

Intergovernmental Revenue

1,121,700

1,108,435

1,133,461

1,159,092

1,185,345

1,212,234

1,239,776

1,267,988

1,296,885

% Increase

17.33%

-1.18%

2.26%

2.26%

2.26%

2.27%

2.27%

2.28%

2.28%

$ Increase

165,700

-13,265

25,026

25,632

26,253

26,889

27,542

28,211

28,897

Charges for Services

6,172,500

6,301,174

6,411,898

6,525,242

6,641,276

6,760,072

6,881,704

7,006,250

7,133,787

% Increase

14.63%

2.08%

1.76%

1.77%

1.78%

1.79%

1.80%

1.81%

1.82%

$ Increase

787,800

128,674

110,725

113,344

116,034

118,796

121,632

124,545

127,537

Fines and Forefeitures

1,025,500

1,033,170

1,040,917

1,048,741

1,056,644

1,064,627

1,072,689

1,080,832

1,089,057

% Increase

11.95%

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

0.76%

0.76%

0.76%

0.76%

$ Increase

109,500

7,670

7,747

7,825

7,903

7,982

8,062

8,143

8,225

Interest Income

359,812

540,000

790,000

940,000

1,140,000

1,240,000

1,390,000

1,390,000

1,440,000

% Increase

-60.23%

50.08%

46.30%

18.99%

21.28%

8.77%

12.10%

0.00%

3.60%

$ Increase

-544,961

180,188

250,000

150,000

200,000

100,000

150,000

0

50,000

Miscellaneous and Transfers

4,236,165

4,469,465

4,487,284

4,605,637

4,624,542

4,844,013

4,864,068

5,084,725

5,106,002

% Increase

13.89%

5.51%

0.40%

2.64%

0.41%

4.75%

0.41%

4.54%

0.42%

$ Increase

516,665

233,300

17,819

118,354

18,904

219,471

20,055

220,657

21,277

Transfers from Fund Balance

5,431,463

1,165,034

1,189,399

1,215,193

1,240,680

1,260,824

1,271,150

1,289,204

1,369,776

% Increase

316.36%

-78.55%

2.09%

2.17%

2.10%

1.62%

0.82%

1.42%

6.25%

$ Increase

4,126,963

-4,266,429

24,365

25,794

25,487

20,144

10,326

18,054

80,572











Total Revenues

89,140,573

87,789,044

90,900,974

94,384,191

97,604,552

100,245,540

101,954,195

104,477,851

107,103,702

% Increase

10.16%

-1.52%

3.54%

3.83%

3.41%

2.71%

1.70%

2.48%

2.51%

$ Increase

8,225,000

-1,351,529

3,111,931

3,483,217

3,220,361

2,640,988

1,708,656

2,523,656

2,625,851

Expenditure Forecast FY22- FY30


Analysis of Expenses by Category

Expenditure Categories

2022

Budget

2023

Estimated

2024

Estimated

2025

Estimated

2026

Estimated

2027

Estimated

2028

Estimated

2029

Estimated

2030

Estimated


Salaries/Wages


27,950,544


28,739,872


29,969,947


31,270,183


32,607,866


34,033,497


35,516,134


37,041,441


38,634,649

% Increase

5.42%

2.82%

4.28%

4.34%

4.28%

4.37%

4.36%

4.29%

4.30%

$ Increase

1,438,164

789,328

1,230,075

1,300,236

1,337,683

1,425,631

1,482,638

1,525,306

1,593,208

Pension Benefits

11,109,914

11,564,176

12,204,973

12,843,333

13,368,056

13,235,872

12,237,936

11,759,113

11,278,639

% Increase

0.32%

4.09%

5.54%

5.23%

4.09%

-0.99%

-7.54%

-3.91%

-4.09%

$ Increase

35,529

454,262

640,797

638,360

524,723

-132,184

-997,936

-478,823

-480,474

DC Plan

510,167

531,065

553,977

575,854

598,097

621,244

645,274

670,021

695,738

% Increase

1.48%

4.10%

4.31%

3.95%

3.86%

3.87%

3.87%

3.84%

3.84%

$ Increase

7,425

20,898

22,912

21,878

22,242

23,147

24,030

24,747

25,717

Other Employee Benefits

6,317,062

6,589,654

6,883,156

7,155,584

7,465,188

7,800,143

8,152,532

8,512,807

8,873,823

% Increase

0.60%

4.32%

4.45%

3.96%

4.33%

4.49%

4.52%

4.42%

4.24%

$ Increase

37,477

272,592

293,503

272,427

309,604

334,955

352,390

360,274

361,016

Contractual

11,187,512

11,461,912

11,493,058

11,774,865

12,063,599

12,359,429

12,461,613

12,767,141

13,080,176

% Increase

7.50%

2.45%

0.27%

2.45%

2.45%

2.45%

0.83%

2.45%

2.45%

$ Increase

780,117

274,400

31,146

281,808

288,734

295,830

102,184

305,528

313,035

Commodities